How many types of tools and slogans and how many information that must support knowledge. It is rare to be in control.
Do you remember Waterloo? Well, the Empereur (who was one of the ‘professionist’) boasted an Intelligence and spy service that had increasingly improved thanks to the Serenissima Republic of Venice (when it conquered it) and which had to allow him to obtain the best information, in a short time and therefore ‘know’ the battlefield.
But! There is always a ‘but’ in life.
But … the information on the state of health of the ground did not reach him: it had rained all night and the mud prevented the artillery from maneuvering at its best.
But he … he did not know that the fog would lift later and therefore he could not observe the area of ​​the fight, plus the area was flat.
But he… he didn’t know his cavalry was charging without the support of the infantry.
Here, how the survival bias – I have to deal not only with known risks but above all with unknown risks through effective Intelligence – contributed, together with other factors, to defeat.
We come to more recent times. The Suez traffic jam caused by a ship aground on 23 March.
Now, it seems that this risk – the cause is not yet known: wind, sand, error, failure… and what else? – “very high impact, rare, had not been foreseen in the risk assessment analyzes”. All focused “on the political risk in that area”, they did not consider the consequence of a navigation accident, however to be investigated. It is enough to look at the satellite tracks to notice “anomalous navigations in the channel”. The information was there, but … they did not help to position the ‘knowledge’ and therefore to activate the consequent actions to mitigate the risk.
Ergo! It is not easy to have the right information at the right time and it is not as easy to have the appropriate skills to interpret the information that will then allow us to get to know the facts and places.
The 2020-2021 Pamphlet sees contributions from Alessandro Scuro, Eugenio Santagata, Angelo Aronica, Attilio Cristiano Vaccaro Belluscio, Aldo Santini, Manuel Di Casoli and Giuseppe Nucci.
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